PeteCzech.com - My Take on Technology, the World and Everything Else

We just got back from a 4.5 day trip to the Netherlands.  Alot has changed since the last time I visited in 2003.  If you’re planning a trip, here are a few things I picked up:

•  The weather was beautiful and it was Easter weekend, so the lines at all the museums were completely out of control!  There was a 2 hour wait for the Anne Frank House, 1 hour for the Van Gogh and even a line at the Heineken Experience.  We didn’t go in, but the Rijks Museum had a huge line as well.  My advice: Skip the lines and buy online.  All the places do online sales of tickets - after you buy online you can just walk straight in.  The lines are for ticket PURCHASES, or so it seems.  FYI, the Anne Frank House was consistently the worst as far as lines.  We were able to be the third party in line by showing up at 8:20am (they open at 9:00am).  This was because the online was sold out so far in advance that we were forced to find another strategy to get in.  By the way, don’t buy the Holland Pass - this still requires you to go to the ticket booth (which means waiting in line again).
• The only way to get to/from the airport is the Train.  Don’t bother with a cab.  Its way too pricey and the trains go every 15 minutes.
• The best time to visit the Keukenhof is late April.  Even in mid-April there were tons of displays not ready yet.
• I’ve perfected my cross-atlantic time-shift strategy (it only took 30 trips!) - just stay up your first day until the sun goes down and then wake up early the next day.  Sounds easier than it really is, but resist the temptation to nap and you’ll be fine every time.
• For those of you interested in the world-famous Schiphol plane spotting, it seemed to me that they have shut down a lot of the parking areas around the airport…?  But, we still found a great area to sit and watch some planes operate.
• Next time we travel internationally I’m going to look into those companies that let you order foriegn currency and have it shipped to your house.  The rates for ATM withdrawls from BOA are insane and I’m unsure the rate is much better either.

So, all in all another successful trip!  Photos coming soon from both Maine and the Netherlands!

I’ve had some real ups and real downs this week.  Some observations that pertain to neither the extreme highs or lows:

• Chrome is a really solid browser.  It has taken me a while to switch but I must say, this thing is pretty solid.  I recommend we all give it a shot - google.com/chrome
• Speaking of another new product, Google has finally taken advantage of their Grand Central acquisition and unveiled (in BETA) Google Voice.  Now, I’m paying $.35 per transcribed voicemail with Jott -  I can’t wait for Google to do it for free!
• The media drives me crazy.  When the market is down for 10 days in a row, its the end of the world.  When its up for 4, we’re recovering.  Even the President says “It’s not that bad!”  Oy.  I actually saw a Fox News Alert: “Citibank up 73% this week” - how about the 90% its down over the past year?
• I broke a second Keurig coffee machine.  If you own one, descale it, and use filtered water.  The new model does iced coffee - it serves up a small amount of coffee and when the melted ice is taken into account, its a perfect serving.  Ingenious!
• I’m digging the new Facebook control panel.  They are going after Twitter’s example.  Judging by the amount of user feedback (most negative!) - the change is definitely getting attention.  In a month, everyone will wonder how they ever lived without this new layout…  Stay tuned!
• I don’t know how long I have gone w/o being a 60 Minutes viewer.  Last weeks coverage of the FDIC takeover of the bank in Illinois was fascinating.  But, Andy Rooney has got to go.
• I’m reading Neil Strauss’ EMERGENCY - It’s interesting.  My next order of business is a second citizenship and some offshore accounts.  Might as well prepare for the end of the world…!

Have a good weekend, internet world…!

It’s amazing to me that people are running around like the sky is falling lately.  Yes, the economy is in the depths of recession - there is no doubt.  And, it will probably go on for a while.  In fact, its likely to get much worse before it gets better.  In the coming months, we’ll see more unemployment, a stunning loss in retail sales…  It will probably be ugly.  But pretty, at the same time.

Why am I cheery?  Because with such losses, there will be incredible opportunities.  We just have to survive a bit longer in order to reap the benefits.  Yes, its difficult in these dark days to see it, but lets look at the facts: everything is cyclical.  Economies rise and fall.  It may not be fast, and definitely not as fast as we want, but it will come back.  And when it does, watch out - we are on the verge of what will probably be one of the largest wealth-building periods in the history of the country.

Prepare for It!

How can we prepare?  By staying alive.  Keep money in cash, stay out of risky investments and wait.  My dirty little secret: I hate the stock market!  The entire industry is no better than Las Vegas: It’s meant to separate you from your money.  The only difference between Vegas and Wall Street is that in Vegas (in most cases), no players know what card is coming out next.  On Wall Street, most people in the know already are aware of what will happen.  This means its inherently unfair for 99% of all retail players… UNLESS THERE IS A GIANT MOVE!

So, lets get ready now: horde cash, save, save, save!   Hold enough so you can survive for 18 months without work.  If you are lucky enough to stay employed, in about 6 months to a year, you’ll see some awesome investment opportunities.. because there is room now for that giant move.

The Opportunities

There are tons of awesome companies on SALE on Wall Street, RIGHT NOW - and it will get better!  Now, I hate to say that any company is totally safe as an investment vehicle, but lets be serious: How many of these solid companies will really go away?  Sure, Lehman and Merrill and some of the others turned out to be trouble…  But, which of these do you think will be GONE:

• Bank of America:  3.63 - down from year high of 43.46.  I just don’t see BAC dropping out of existence.  The stock hasn’t been this low since 1986!  A $20,000 investment today will buy you 5,500 shares.  WHEN (not if!) this stock recovers, if it were to just hit it’s high again, would net you almost $240,000.  Not a bad return - something worth waiting for!
• BP: $35, 1 year high of 77.69.  Oil isn’t going anywhere.  BP is 1/2 its value.  And, it pays an awesome dividend.  I see few negatives.
• BA: Boeing!  $29.65 - year high 88.29.  Yes, travel sucks now but these guys are golden.  This stock is on sale.  It may go lower, but I still like it.
• CAL: Buffett said, the quickest way to be a millionaire is to become a billionaire and then buy an airline…  But seriously, CAL is $9.69 right now, year high was $25.  I see this one rebounding.  UAL, AMR, DAL/NWAC I feel are in trouble and CAL has expanded in wise ways.  They have the newest fleet and have a different culture.  They will survive.  Oh, and they also fly BA planes only.
• AXP: Amex isn’t going away.  Hell, even Wyclef has them in his lyrics.  Amex is a consumer-oriented company with a good product.  Its $11.06 and has seen $52.63 a year ago.  Yes, they did convert their status to get TARP funds, but I still feel they will be survivors.
• DIS: The mouse is a survivor.  Honestly, the stock is where it was 12 years ago.  I love it - tourism will rebound.  ABC is running a better ship than CBS or NBC…  Go Mickey!

As you can tell, I’m interested in survivors…  Who won’t survive?  Well, I don’t know.  But I wouldn’t want to own these:

• AAPL: Steve Jobs is running out of time, people won’t want to pay 70% more for a computer with the same parts as a Dell, and every cell phone maker has their sights locked on the iPhone.  It just isn’t a smart play.  Don’t get me wrong, I love the iPod and iTunes and all that jazz, but there is not a lot of upside here right now.  Lets see what happens when Apple 2.0 (Post-Jobs) takes effect.
•  C: Citibank is a disaster, its not as clean as BAC.  I don’t know why they didn’t let it go.  33% owned by the feds and its diluted.  Good Luck!
• GM: The cars suck, the unions suck, the entire situation is bleek.  They may survive but should they?
• UAL/AMR: Despite my CAL above, I don’t like airlines.  I just don’t feel they will be able to survive.  Same problems as GM - too many unions and too many benefits being paid.  I like CAL’s approach to customer and employee satisfaction much more.
• GE: GE lost track of technology and became a bank.  This doesn’t bode well.  And, NBC is a disaster.  Their news organization is a joke, and their prime time selections have been poor for years (except the office!)

BEWARE

Well, you’ll have to wait for my warnings, coming soon in another post….  I have to keep you all in a state of suspense.  But, do some due diligence on the above companies!  Talk to you soon!

Someone sent me a list on Facebook today - it was corny but I did it, and now I’m thinking in list format.  Doing my usual evening trip through my Google reader, I got to thinking about the inventions and innovations I’d like to see.  Here we go:

1) HDR Cameras (High dynamic range): I remember traveling through Europe and my dad had a video camera where the camera was hooked up via a wire to a VHS recorder he wore like a messenger bag.  Thank god for those videos - they are priceless today.  So when I was out last week in Zurich taking 5 photos in a bracketed sequence, then wasting time on the flight home processing them…  It occurred to me that this is a perfect example of a process that needs streamlining.  I think we are close, and I’m sure the day is coming soon, but by far this is an innovation that I’m ready for.  Now that there is a deluge of high-megapixel cameras, lets focus on the quality of those pixels instead of the quantity.

On a side note - I’ve never understood why digital cameras need the same mechanism as normal film cameras.  If you have a sensor that can pick up light….  why does it need more time (different shutter speeds) to get the information it needs?  I mean, film makes sense - it needs the exposure to light.  By why camera CCDs?  If its taking a digital snapshot anyway, why keep it open longer?  Why cant it do a night exposure in 1/60th of a second like a day exposure?

2) Wireless electricity: I know this is a pipe dream, but we can all hope.  How cool would it be to have a “Charge Zone” - maybe a small area that you put your phone, iPod, etc., and it charges it - all without wires?  Don’t mock me - I hear that researchers are already trying.  And if you think its totally impossible…  What is lightning?

3) Auto GPS w/ weather radar and real traffic data:  I suppose the issue here is the gathering of the traffic data.  But, well, someone must come up with a fix.  I’d like to put in my destination and have a true rendering of the route with weather and other possible issues that may come up.  And I’d like it updated throughout my trip.  How about uploading the trip details to a website so parents can watch kids as they drive?  So many applications…

4) Cheap online video delivery: Without a CDN, its nearly impossible to stream video to mass audiences.  Mark Cuban just did a great post about this and I agree.  There needs to be more CDN’s and more available streams in order for the internet to really be a video delivery format.  We’re closer but still a long way away.

5) Autopilot for my Automobile: There must must must be a way we can get this going.  I’m sure the Europeans will beat us to it.  But you should be able to control a car on a highway w/o using the steering wheel.  Perhaps an auto-pilot lane or something similar.  Think about the implications: if all the cars in the lane were moving at 75mph, would ’safe following distance’ really apply anymore?  We could pack tightly and still move quickly.

6) V/STOL Vehicles for Commuters: Vertical or Short take off / landing.  Think Harrier Jump Jet.  How cool would it be if commuters in the Poconos could take a different means to commute to NYC?  OK, I know the problems, crowded airspace, “isn’t this just a helicopter”….  Think about it though, it has the potential to change how we commute, how far we live from work, etc.

7) A true all-in-one device:  iPhone may be a good start.  But I mean with a real camera, real web access, and real storage capacity.  We’re well on our way.

8) True, universal video conferencing: Skype, Paltalk and iChat have started this trend - when bandwidth continues I expect to see this shortly on mobile devices as well.

9) Wifi Everywhere: Mobile phone bandwidth counted with M’s and not K’s.  I look forward to this quite a bit.

10) Automated, self parking lots: The europeans have this down.  We are light years behind them in our parking technology.  Example one: in the historic city of Brugge, Belgium, they have build vast underground parking garages under the city.  Above ground you have one of the charms of europe with few cars parked on the street and below ground you have a massive parking structure.

Example two: in Zurich, you follow the signs for the P.  The signs show the number of spots available at each lot.  When you pull into the lot, it directs you to free spots.  You pay via card at self-payment machines throughout the complex.  This is also underground and there is no way to view it from the city itself.  Amazing!

Now, I realize this would be difficult to do in NYC, where the underground is complex and confusing.  But why not in other cities?  I’ll point to Boston being an example of a place where underground development (BIG DIG) has worked (SORTA).  We need to streamline our lives and this is a simple way to start…  How about putting some stimulus money into a project like this?  Read about the URANIA Parking Garage, Translated from German.

I just found this photo I took in Sydney in my Picasa library and did a simple focal B&W on it.  I took this on our last night in Sydney - my new favorite thing to do is go out with my Sigma f1.4 and snap quick shots at night.  The lens does a really great job - this was shot handheld @ 800 ISO: