Bush’s comments today on appeasement have tied nicely into a book I just started reading: You Can Negotiate Anything.  I don’t think there is any doubt that the appeasement process has failed us many times before.  Here are a few examples:

• Chamberlain’s appeasement of Hitler lead to an agreement that handed over Czechoslovakia to the Germans.  Rather than protect an independent country he conceded more than enough to bolster the confidence of the enemy.
• Carter publicly pronounced that he would never place US Soldiers in Africa.  As a response, Cuba and Castro (such a weak regime) put their forces on the Horn of Africa!
• Carter again, turned his back on the Shah of Iran and proclaimed the Ayatollah a “deeply religious man”.

What does this have to do with negotiation?  In “You Can Negotiate Anything”, Herb Cohen talks about the three principles of negotiation: Power, Time and Information.  Lets put this into perspective with a current situation – Iraq.  So, the Democratic nominees have stated that they will withdraw from Iraq immediately…  What they’ve done is publicly conceded and stated their position without receiving a concession from the other side!  So, right now the enemy knows that by waiting 7 months, they may have a good chance to outlive the US Forces by just surviving.  And what will they do when we leave?

So, we’ve given up power by stating our position and the enemy has the luxury of time.  They’ll wait for years for a chance to take the power away from a democratic Iraq, while the American position has been weakened by our lack of patience.  They now have the power, the time, and the information because they know our plans!

This has happened before.  I won’t ruin the book, because I think its important to read it.  But Cohen points to the Paris negotiations to end the Vietnam war.  The US envoy went to Paris to negotiate a treaty of ceasefire and stayed in a 5 star hotel on a week-to-week rental.  The Vietnamese rented a villa in the suburbs on a 30 month lease.  They knew we’d be impatient, that public sentiment wanted a fast resolution.  They settled in for the long haul knowing that it was only in their benefit to have a slow negotiation as the US would defeat itself from the inside.  And look what happened.

Will this happen again?  You bet!  Because the politicians running for office now are publicly announcing their plans!  It behooves the enemy to sit back and wait, to see how our political process shakes out.  They are betting on the fact that the country doesn’t have the nerve to stick with it.

So back to Bush’s comments.  He said today that some think that negotiation with terrorists will work.  My question is, what are the terrorists negotiating for?  What are their goals and concerns?  Last I can tell, their agenda usually includes these goals:

• Elimination of Israel
• Elimination of the USA
• Conversion of all to Islam
• Acquisition of nuclear technology

Obviously, there is not a lot to negotiate.  So what can we even concede to bring this to be a win/win negotiation?  Nothing!  None of these points or anything that lead to them are acceptable!  So Bush’s tactics are in fact more effective in this negotation.  He won’t bother!  These demands are a set of non-starters.  So what does Obama think he can accomplish sitting down with the President of Iran?  He’ll bolster the confidence of the regime by giving them legitimacy.  Since Iran’s goals are so far out of the mainstream and bad for US interests, sitting down with the extremists will result in nothing but concessions by our state and almost none by them.  What concessions can Iran offer?  What would they offer?

There is a lot to be said by unknowns.  The Iranians DON’T know what Bush is capable of.  But they know that Obama would talk.  And talking alone will mean a weakened US position.  That, is appeasement.